Every day I seem to see another article or Youtube video implying that the Xbox console is a dead platform. The decline in Xbox sales is definitely a real thing. Playstation 5 sales are easily double the number of Xbox Series X/S consoles that have sold. And Microsoft themselves have said that their focus is no longer on selling more consoles.
But I still prefer my Xbox Series X over anything Sony is making currently. Should I be worried? I’d say no, not at all: but I’ll put my stake in the ground here to refer back to when I’m proven wrong in a year or two…
My opinion on the consoles
I’ve played games on a lot of consoles over the decades alongside my PC gaming. But for the last seventeen or eighteen years I’ve been firmly entrenched with the Xbox platform. I have some opinions that guide this choice, but obviously that’s all they are: opinions
What follows are opinions that relate to my preference for the Xbox consoles. These are not ‘facts’, and I fully accept that other people will have different preferences
Nintendo’s products have never really interested me. I have nothing against the hardware, but I don’t find anything appealing in terms of their selection of games. They are more family-friendly environments with a more child-like art style that has never clicked with me.
PlayStations are a more direct comparison to the Xbox: many of the games have a similar aesthetic, and generally the visuals are more realistic on both platforms. But I have a PS 4 and was totally unimpressed with what it offered. The main UI is terrible and their ‘PlayStation Network’ subscription service has a fraction of the games that Xbox Live has, and essentially no ‘day of launch’ triple A titles at all. The Xbox controller is simply better in every way: it feels so much more comfortable in my hands.
Most importantly, the PlayStation ‘platform exclusive’ games are generally not of a type that would make me want to change over. The anime art style of most of the games on the Sony platform is not to my taste. And gameplay is more targeted at action-oriented gamers.
The PS4 I own was purchased to play Uncharted which was and still is exclusive to that platform: I played that one game and since then it has collected dust. I would buy a PlayStation 5 if there was ever a game on the platform that I really wanted but couldn’t get anywhere else, but that hasn’t happened yet.
What is being reported
Microsoft’s Xbox Series X/S is selling only a fraction of the number of units that Sony’s Playstation 5 is. Some reports say the difference is approaching five to one. This is a huge difference, but potentially worse is the fact that Xbox sales are actually decreasing: about a 40% drop in sales between quarters. Although these factoids sound terrible, the truth is a bit more nuanced.
The current ‘lifetime’ sales as of July of 2024 for Playstation 5 is about 60 million units. Xbox Series X/S sales for the same measure are estimated to be about 30 million units. That means Playstation is outpacing Xbox sales by about two to one, which is a significant gap. It is also true that the gap in sales between the two consoles is growing: that is where the ‘five to one’ ratio comes from- it accounts for recent sales, not lifetime sales.
No matter how you measure it, though, Playstation is decisively winning this generation’s sales trophy, as it did with the previous generation. The difference is almost exactly the same as well: about two to one. Microsoft themselves have commented that they ‘lost the console wars’ as part of their filings during the Activision / Blizzard acquisition.
Xbox consoles are not going away
I don’t think Microsoft depends on console sales to support their gaming division’s profitability. Their strategy seems to have been more focused on increasing the revenue and profit from selling their gaming services, specifically Xbox Live subscriptions for both the console and the PC. Microsoft’s investment in game ‘intellectual property’ through purchasing Bethesda and Activision/Blizzard appears, in my opinion at least, to support this hypothesis.
I do think Microsoft closed some of these acquisitions, particularly the Activision/Blizzard one, more out of ego than practicality. I honestly don’t see how they can expect to recoup $68 billion dollars from that single purchase, no matter how profitable sales and subscriptions might be. But it does suggest, at least, that they want to shift focus onto the games instead of the devices.
But Microsoft still needs a device of their own to act as a ‘home’ for their gaming ambitions. The value proposition for Xbox Live is much greater when the subscriber also owns an Xbox: it might not be the ‘exclusive’ platform for the service, but it certainly is the best. And Microsoft is not a company that quickly abandons things based on ‘market dominance’: the Surface is still around and still contributing to their bottom line.
I believe that the Xbox console will remain ‘active’ as a product line for years to come. Of course, it is always possible that it will become a part of history at some point: all good things come to an end. But I expect that will not occur for at least one full generation. I anticipate an ‘Xbox Series X 2’ or some equally stupidly named console will be released by 2027/2028. There may also be a portable Xbox device akin to a Steam deck (‘X Deck’?) in that same timeframe.
I would, by the way, love it if Microsoft could come up with a more rational naming convention for their gaming devices. Xbox 360, Xbox One, Xbox One X, Xbox Series X- no wonder people have no idea whether they have the current console or not. Nice, sequential numbers- that is one thing Sony and Apple got right, that’s for sure.
Regarding platform ‘Exclusives’
Although it is possible, I doubt Microsoft will pull a ‘Sony’ and shift to a strategy of more strict platform exclusivity using their newly acquired IP. A significant driver of Sony sales is, in my opinion, the fact that they have a large stable of first and third party exclusives. You have to buy a Playstation to play these games: Sony offers no apologies for this strategy and usually has a tone of arrogance pertaining to exclusives instead. Even the Sony fans are on board with exclusivity- I’ve seen a very disjointed argument amongst Sony fans that Xbox sucks because it has no exclusives usually followed by extremely negative over-reaction any time Microsoft does arrange an exclusive.
I briefly had a fantasy of Microsoft ‘sticking it’ to the Sony fanboys by making all the Bethesda and Activision/Blizzard games into Xbox and PC only offerings, removing them entirely from the Sony platform just as Sony does with their games and the Playstation. But my understanding of the ‘rules’ Microsoft agreed to with the FTC when acquiring Activision/Blizzard puts limits on that kind of thing, and I also don’t think that is Microsoft’s real intent.
My expectation is that Microsoft will leverage a few timed Xbox exclusives from their newly acquired IP, and frankly I think it is about bloody time. But I doubt Microsoft will make platform-dedicated titles their ‘bread and butter’ the way Sony has.